A gas pipeline company as a common carrier is bound to provide transmission capacity to shippers under contracts, in which the maximum daily throughputs for each shipper are specified, and any daily nomination below that should be satisfied except for some inevitable reasons. To clarify the gas transmission responsibility of the company, service reliability is suggested to be included in the contracts, describing the probability that the nomination of the shippers can be satisfied. An analytical method combined hydraulic simulation, considering the uncertainty of both the pipeline system and gas demands, is proposed to assess the service reliability. The consequences caused by the compressor station or pipe segment failure of a pipeline are simulated by Stoner Pipeline Simulator (SPS). The probability distribution of the maximum actual flows of the pipeline system is determined based on probability theory and random process. Thus, the service reliability associated with firm contracts can be obtained, and combined with predicting the gas demands assigned in firm contracts, the service reliability associated with an interruptible contract is obtained with convolution. The study provides an early warning method for both shippers and pipeline companies to cope with a potential gas shortage. It can be further applied to the service reliability assessment of a gas pipeline network.

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