Running a predictive model scenario for several days into the future on a complex system like the Texas Eastern Pipeline can be a difficult task for planning engineers and gas controllers alike. In a detailed model configuration, essentially everything that must be controlled and adjusted on the physical pipeline system must be controlled within the simulation at the appropriate times. This can make the execution of predictive model both labor and expertise intensive. Consequently, the number of these model runs are limited to the bare minimum, thereby limiting the usefulness of the model. The authors have developed a set of heuristic rules which automatically control the simulation of compression and storage facilities within the model to closely mimic the way the Duke Energy gas controllers run the Texas Eastern Pipeline. The rules take into account both primary and satellite station unit sequencing, load forecasts, unit outages, line pack targets, and storage field capabilities. The rules are constructed to avoid over-cycling of units and other "over control" common to automated procedures. The "Auto-PM" rules are currently being enhanced to take into consideration swings in demand in the load forecast to accomplish "just in time" packing of the system to better prepare for large pulls. Automatic control of predictive models through heuristic rules provides for more realistic simulation of the near future of the pipeline system since the rules are constructed to react to the hydraulic conditions in the same manner that gas control reacts to the physical hydraulic states. Having the capability to run realistic scenarios with little or no operator intervention will provide several benefits. First, it will provide for more efficient use of planning engineering resources in the daily development of pipeline condition forecasts. It will also give the gas controllers the ability to run predictive scenarios when unexpected events necessitate changes to the way the pipeline is run during times when no planning support is available. Finally, it will better facilitate the use of models within business applications outside of gas control.

2 Introduction
2.1 TETCO Pipeline

Duke Energy is an integrated energy and energy services company with the ability to offer physical delivery and management of both electricity and natural gas throughout the United States and internationally. Duke Energy provides these and other services through seven business segments:

  • Electric Operations

  • Natural Gas Transmission

  • Field Services

  • Trading and Marketing Pipeline Simulation Interest Group 2 October 17 - 19, 2001

  • Global Asset Development

  • Other Energy Services

  • Real Estate Operations

Today Duke Energy Gas Transmission manages 12,000 miles of natural gas pipelines including East Tennessee Natural Gas Co., Texas Eastern Transmission, LP, Algonquin Gas Transmission Co. and with other partners, Maritimes & Northeast Pipeline. DEGT also owns natural gas salt cavern facilities in Texas and Louisiana with a total storage capacity of 24 billion cubic feet. The corporation's headquarters are in Charlotte North Carolina. Natural Gas Transmission is managed from Gas Control Centers located in Houston, Texas.

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