This paper is a follow-up of some former authors's paper including the one presented at the 52nd CIPC - 2001 and it explores the insertion of natural gas (NG) in the primary energy and electricity generations world and Brazilian matrices. It updates and review matrices through 2000–2020. The projections author's assumptions and parameters were compared to data from DOE-EIA, EIA and MME - energy outlook 2002–2022. The work studies and results are independent but have some accordance with those group data. The importance of the NG phase-in in the Brazilian energy matrices is prospected and explored.
The recent several giant oil field discovers by the Brazilian oil company (PETROBRAS-BR) and partners and the growing volume of oil reserves is supporting the Brazilian oil production self sufficiency from the year 2005 and on. The projection of domestic production of 4,4 million barrel / day in 2020 will be ranked among the larger eight to tenth world production and between 13th and 15th bigger oil proved reserves.
Financial and economic analyses of the alternative electric generation matrices defined the transitional hydro-thermo generation matrix as the best option to expand the electricity offer in Brazil for the period 2000–2020.
The Brazilian energy system efficiency is evaluated using the income elasticity of energy demand (IEED) and the results of Brazilian IEED for 2000–2020 are compared to others countries and regions for different time periods, such as 1960–1972, 1976–1885 (1st and 2nd oil shock) (WAES-MIT, 1977). The IEED methodology is recommended to evaluate the expected efficiency gain after the results from the recent electrical power rationing between June, 2001 to February, 2002, in Brazil.
Methodologies and parameters used in the energy projections are described to guide the understanding of paper content. The significance of the insertion of NG into the Brazilian matrices is presented and documented. The hole of the importance of the recent oil reserves accumulation in the Brazilian macro economy and its geopolitics is reasonably explained.
The exploration of the financial and economic evaluations of the hydro, hydrothermo and thermohydro electricity generation matrices are a good example of integrated energy planning and is a guide to the electric sector governmental hydroelectricity disintegrated plans that has been misleading the expansion of electricity toward over offer and consumption waste for the last three decades and that is the main reason for the recent shortage of hydroelectricity offer. This apparent shortage of offer was concentrated in the Southeast region of the country with surplus of hydroelectricity in the South region with a lack of transmission capacity from South to Southeast (Bahia, 2002).
The main basis for projections are the review and updates of data published on papers by Bahia, R.R. 1980, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002 and the reports DOE-EIA 2001 and EIA 2002. The national economic growth rates were based on historic Brazilian macro-economy profile tendency for the last four decades 1970–2000 and the projected rates compared with rates published by researcher groups reports from DOE-EIA and EIA.
