Abstract

The recent energy system privatization and/or deregulation are a worldwide processes derived from technological and economical developments and ecological pressures that are inducing severe changes in the structures of the primary energy and in the electric energy generation matrices. There is in Brazil a mistaken concentration of 38' of the high intensive capital cost of hydraulic primary energy against the only 3% worldwide share and only 7% (93% of hydroelectricity) of the low intensive capital cost of the thermal electricity sources generation compared to 82% (18% of hydroelectricity) share of thermal sources in the world. There is no enough current avalability of public financial resources to garantee a suitable expansion of the electric energy offer to supply the high increasing electricity demand in the brazilian energy market. Those are the explanations for the need of a quick and accelerated change in the brazilian electric generation matrix with the expected thermal share increase from 18%, in the year 2000 to 42%, in 2010, and 51% in 2020. supported by the natural gas (NG) as the main source for the thermal generation. By the year 2020 the potential of the NG demand for themal electricity generation will be about 160 million of cubic meter a day (Mcmd) that is 66% of the total NG demand of 240 Mmcd from which 58% (140 Mcmd) will be imported from external sources as Bolivia, Argentina, Peru and Trinidad-Tobago and/or Venezuela.

Brazil is in the small group of countries with a low CO2 emission mainly due to the small coal consumption in electricity generation and the large use of hydroelectricity. The increased NG use in thermal electricity generation is still the better option concerning this emission. Recent C fluxes measurements from the Long Range Biosphere and Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) in the amazonian region has demonstrated the possibility of both young and mature forest are possibly able to sink the significant amount of 2.1 Gt/yr (3 t/hectare/yr) of CO2 that may overcompensate all the accumulated additional emission from the NG increase of consumption in the primary energy with the NG demand growing shares from 10 Mcmd in 2000, to 150 Mcmd, in 2010, and 240 Mcmd in 2020. Finally, Brazil even with the reduction of the hydroelectricity generation and the increase of NG in the primary energy matrix has a very favorable condition to delight a clean sustainable economical and ecological development.

Introduction

The natural gas (NG) in the primary energy and in the eletricity generation matrices are analysed in ralation to the energy sources in Brazil compared to the rest of the world. The long term world primary energy demand matrices are revised in both tendential and ecological scenarios from the year 1850 to 2100. The brazilian primary energy matrix, the hydroelectricity (HE) and thermolectricity (TE) generation matrices are reviewed as related to the NG shares during the 1990 - 2000 and 2000 - 2020 period of years. NG financial and advantages are evaluated and some energetic indicators improvements of boe/inhab and kWh/inhab as the result of the increasing annual growth rates of oil and NG in the brazilian primary energy matrix for the years 2000 to 2020.

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