Introduction

Nuclear energy is an established source of electrical power. Today there are over 260 GW(e) of nuclear electric generating capacity in operation or under construction in the world. Most of this capacity is in the industrialized countries but there is also a significant amount under construction in the developing ones.

Many people consider that we are heading for an energy crisis, if indeed we are not already there, as our reserves of oil and natural gas are depleted. Most would also agree that we should try to conserve these versatile fuels as much as possible. Analysts 1, who have examined the energy picture in detail, argue that even with the most intensive conservation measures, our energy requirements will continue to increase and, if they are to be met, there must be a growing reliance on nuclear energy.

The energy situation in Canada. while it may differ in detail, is fairly representative of a large part of the industrialized world. It is useful, therefore, to consider in what way nuclear energy can play a role in our energy future. Since nuclear energy is not universally applicable to all our energy needs, it is also important that we recognize its limitations.

This paper attempts to give some perspective on the future role of nuclear energy in our society.

Nuclear Energy Today

At the present time, nuclear energy in the form of the CANDU-PHW ∗ reactor produces some 4500 MW(e) of electricity for the Ontario Hydro system. This represents about 20 per cent of Ontario's installed electrical generating capacity. Ontario Hydro has a further 9000 MW(e) of nuclear capacity under construction so that, by 1988, Ontario will have a total nuclear generated supply of 13,500 MW(e) of electricity. The nuclear base in Canada is expanding to other provinces with 600 MW(e) CANDU-PHW units being built in Quebec and New Brunswick. A recent survey of electrical utilities across the country indicated that the installed nuclear capacity might reach 70 GW(e) by the year 2000.

∗ Canada Deuterium Uranium – Pressurized Heavy Water.

It is likely that most of Canada's nuclear capacity will be produced by CANDU-PHW reactors. The system as demonstrated by the Pickering generating station, our first commercial station, is an acknowledged success with very high capacity factors and impressive economics 2. Since it began generating electricity in 1971, Pickering has produced well over 80 billion kWh at a lifetime capacity factor of over 79 per cent. This high capacity factor was achieved despite problems with pressure-tube cracking in two of the four units which reduced the overall station output in the period 1974 to 1976. The capacity factor, which is simply the relationship between actual electricity produced and that which might have been produced with year-round operation, is usually regarded as the best way to measure a station's performance.

In 1977, three of Pickering's four units operated with capacity factors above 90 per cent while the fourth achieved a capacity factor of 86 per cent. Each of these four units ranked in the first ten among the western world's 163 commercial nuclear units.

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