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Keywords: forecast
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 4–7, 2020
Paper Number: OTC-30771-MS
... on certain assumptions that may be controversial among the team members and management. Therefore, the IWC business case is usually supported only by the improved economics. A key input on the economics is the production forecast. The industry lacks a standard workflow to predict the production from...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 4–7, 2020
Paper Number: OTC-30613-MS
... Ensemble Kalman filter technique, whereby measured wave conditions within the numerical wave forecast model domain are assimilated onto the combined set of internal and boundary grid points while taking into account model and observation error covariances. The updated model state and boundary conditions...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 4–7, 2020
Paper Number: OTC-30690-MS
... given. mooring system accuracy coefficient frequency model test vessel model upstream oil & gas operation estimation objective function correspond parameter value stiffness artificial intelligence marine operation high-precision data prediction forecast simulation wave...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2019
Paper Number: OTC-29422-MS
... mating, and historically extreme sea ice conditions that delayed tow-to-field operations. Topsides marine operations required data collection and forecasting system enhancements more than 2 years in advance due to the sensitivity of the operations, and the complex topography and climate of the site...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2019
Paper Number: OTC-29564-MS
...% in oil production, with concomitant reduction in total water production and in the overall water injection. A pilot test in the actual field has been implemented to verify the consistency between modeling and reality (data observation), in order to guarantee that the gains forecasted by our study are...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2019
Paper Number: OTC-29542-MS
... Accurate forecasts of coastal erosion are essential for the effective management (operation and protection) of critical infrastructure such as gas terminals and shallow-buried nearshore pipelines, preventing the costly losses of production associated with storm damage or exposure...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, April 30–May 3, 2018
Paper Number: OTC-28723-MS
... Abstract Accurate marine weather forecasts are essential for operational planning which could lead to significant cost savings on vessel, personnel, and equipment stand-by. There are many global forecasting products available on the market, providing free wind and wave forecasts on a global...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, April 30–May 3, 2018
Paper Number: OTC-28784-MS
... potential to save many thousands of dollars per day in unplanned downtime and vessel contracting, allowing large efficiencies in sequencing, mobilisation and demobilisation costs if decisions are taken at the earliest possible opportunity. As forecasts extend weeks to months ahead, it is well known that...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, April 30–May 3, 2018
Paper Number: OTC-28752-MS
... Abstract We present a multi-resolution probabilistic ocean forecasting system designed to support offshore energy operations worldwide. The system is composed of an integrated suite of ocean circulation models including a global model of 25 km resolution, Atlantic and Indian Ocean models of 6...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 1–4, 2017
Paper Number: OTC-27695-MS
... lift, followed by the side lift onto a floating vessel are presented. A total of 34 HMPE synthetic slings are used to attach a 1,200-ton purpose-built lifting frame to the ZPMC 12,000-ton revolving crane. Wave forecast data from three sources are compared with continuously measured data from a...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 1–4, 2017
Paper Number: OTC-27708-MS
... Abstract Marine forecasts are essential to operational planning, with decisions able to be guided by a host of different weather products spanning a period of days, weeks and even months ahead. The correct selection and subsequent application of these different types of weather products has the...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 1–4, 2017
Paper Number: OTC-27931-MS
... Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts are subject to large amounts of uncertainty. The current operational method of estimating the uncertainty is via historical errors from the past five years of forecasts. Circles are drawn around each of the forecast points such that the actual position...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 2–5, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-27191-MS
... Abstract 2015 was a year of unprecedented Loop Current (LC) activity. From February to June 2015, the LC and its associated eddies were monitored at a significantly higher rate in southern Walker Ridge in support of current-sensitive offshore operations. A privately operated ocean forecast...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 2–5, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-26920-MS
... anticyclone, and generating numerous intense cyclones. The extensive observations offered the opportunity to improve model initialization and thus the overall accuracy of the operational ocean current forecasts. An example is given of the substantial improvements that can result when more accurate...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 4–7, 2015
Paper Number: OTC-25658-MS
... A novel in-house technique has been developed for infill well production forecasting for brown fields on primary depletion as an alternative method to forecast production when reservoir simulation models are not available. The paper demonstrates the use of an unconventional approach to...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2013
Paper Number: OTC-24139-MS
... ring nbcr nbc ring variability north brazil north brazil current retroflection circulation otc 24139 retroflection drifter global hycom forecast offshore technology conference OTC 24139 Jet Streams of the Tropical Atlantic: Observing and Forecasting the North Brazil Current...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2013
Paper Number: OTC-24108-MS
... subsurface inputs. There have been 6 reservoir penetrations, 4 DSTs and 3 full reservoir cores and multiple fluid samples. A structured workflow was followed to identify and incorporate the uncertainties in the subsurface assessment. Probabilistic forecasts helped to fully characterize and realistically...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 6–9, 2013
Paper Number: OTC-24006-MS
... Abstract With the rapid development of computing and mapping software, meteorologists are able to create graphical marine weather forecasts to provide drilling operations a better picture of the weather windows for their operations. By being able to combine satellite, radar, operation...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 2–5, 2011
Paper Number: OTC-21532-MS
... develop a three-dimensional description of the regional ocean. The feature oriented scheme is used to initialize an operational forecasting system using the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) framework. Implementation, calibration, and validation of this system were carried out for multiple case...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Offshore Technology Conference, May 3–6, 2010
Paper Number: OTC-20602-MS
... well with observed tracks. The model can be run either to hindcast hundreds of years of simulated Loop Current and LCE coverage or to produce ensemble forecasts from an observed starting position. The Loop Current and LCE time series can improve estimates of current speeds as well as provide the...

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