The oil and gas industry is emerging into deep and ultra-deep waters, introducing an operating environment not encountered in shallow water. Further, these deepwater development prospects are typically characterized by large investments, tight time schedules and the introduction of technology under unproven conditions. These and other challenges result in higher risk exposure but also the potential for opportunities that should be exploited.
This paper demonstrates the potential value of an integrated risk management plan for subsea deepwater developments. The paper presents a methodology for systematic evaluation of the system, applying risk and reliability techniques in combination with verification and qualification procedures, to identify technical uncertainties and successfully manage these risks and uncertainties.
Reliability management using the systematics of qualifying new technology and a structured risk management program provides a powerful tool to assure project objectives are met, and uncertainties are managed throughout the project execution. The methodology supports and stresses the need for multidisciplinary assessment of the field development solutions, and the value of integrated risk management efforts. By implementing risk management plans and applying risk and reliability techniques to the total development project, risks are reduced, but possibly even more important, opportunities can be discovered and decisions can be made with a better understanding of the total risks and consequences.
These techniques can be used to proactively identify shortcomings that may otherwise have gone unnoticed. Further, having a better understanding of the uncertainties involved, ultimately result in possibilities to reduce these uncertainties and assist in the decision making process when evaluating subsea developments.
The increase in deepwater development has had a significant impact on overall GOM production. While the shallow-water GOM oil production generally has declined over the last decades, deepwater GOM oil production has more than offset the recent decline in shallow-water production. This trend is expected to continue to increase over the next 5 years.
Technological improvements have allowed oil and gas developments to emerge into deep and ultra-deep waters, introducing an operating environment not encountered in shallow water. While deepwater developments were dominated by the major oil and gas companies (defined here to include BP, ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil, and Shell) a decade ago, more and more of the non-majors are beginning to explore and develop deepwater assets. Fast track projects and the use of subsea solutions is cutting investment costs and increasing the revenues due to the reduced time to first oil, however the economic risks related to some of these deepwater developments could be significant.
Following this trend, it is essential to understand the various uncertainties associated with operation in these new environments, and accept full accountability for the economical consequences. The current deep and ultra-deep water developments in the Gulf of Mexico are forcing operators and manufacturers to look for new cost efficient solutions without compromising safety, property or the environmental issues. Managing the growing economical risk for a deepwater developments, is becoming an increasing challenge for the operators, putting pressure on designers, certification and classification agents.
