Abstract
Production efficiency (PE) is a key performance indicator for the oil and gas industry, as it reflects the ability to optimize resource utilization, reduce operational costs, improve safety, and enhance decision making and planning for operation and project phases. However, PE forecasts often have an optimistic bias and assume constant or flat PE over time, ignoring the effects of aging, maintenance, and operational issues on the production system. This paper proposes a probabilistic PE forecast approach captures the patterns of PE and its components (well, gathering and installation) based on historical data and peer group benchmarking across life cycle. The model follows the ISO/TS 3250:2021 standard for concepts, calculation and reporting of PE. The methodology also shows that PE have a correlation with the operating age of the production system, with shape similar to a bathtub curve (ISO 14224:2016). The implementation of the model improved the quality and reliability of the PE forecast for the company's planning and projects evaluation areas and enabled more effective and sustainable actions to improve PE in the long term. The model also provided more data and insights for decision makers and helped to maintain a more economically robust and resilient portfolio of projects.
