This paper focus on the problem of estimating a fleet of supply vessels dedicated to transport diesel consumed by offshore oil and gas installations at Campos Basin, Brazil. Such problem has been widely tackled by several publications, most of them employing traditional deterministic approaches such classical optimization or other heuristic methods, despite of the intrinsic stochastic components the area encompasses. Hence, this work analyzes the problem based on discrete-event dynamic simulation considering uncertainty present in offshore operations. The main results are organized in terms of lead time curves. Then a hypothetical case analysis is conducted, from which it is possible to have more robust fleet estimation, as well as an amplified comprehension on the impact of uncertainty in logistics and offshore operations.

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