Abstract
The discovery of an oil field results from extensive exploratory work, culminating in its declaration of commerciality. To estimate the recoverable volume of oil and determine the net present value (NPV) of the project, a conceptual study of the production system is made. Given the (inherent) uncertainties of the exploration stage, the information and models used to support such studies tend to have low accuracy. The treatment of uncertainties is done with additional information acquired along the project. This is the case of well tests to mitigate reservoir uncertainties. However, a methodology able to capture the most relevant aspects of the NPV through the integration of different disciplines (reservoir engineering, flow assurance, topsides, etc.), without this entailing lengthy and complex simulations, is still an unmet demand.
Looking for inspiration in analogous systems and successful projects is the usual way the industry deals with uncertainties, which is why the concepts for new projects tend to be similar to those of the past. While this attitude brings comfort to decision makers, there is a risk of losing the opportunity to add value to the project through a more profitable alternative concept.
In the case of large oil fields, most companies will try to urgently put them to production, since the postponement of revenue reduces its NPV. This can lead to the development of fast track projects, restricting the time of alternative studies. Again, it is important to improve the decision-making process.
This work aims to present a methodology for conceptual studies through the integrated simulation of different disciplines. This methodology uses the NPV as a parameter in the generation of exploratory numbers of pre-projects and creates a criterion for the selection of a subset to be evaluated in following phases. The aim is to evaluate, for example, the ideal number and capacity of platforms in a field, the convenience of "phasing" or not of the construction of wells, a criteria for choosing flexible or rigid risers, the gains obtained with the increase in diameter of risers and production lines, etc.
