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Keywords: probability
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Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, November 5–7, 2018
Paper Number: OTC-29167-MS
... ice actions. If individual actions are not mutually exclusive, then combined actions also need consideration. ISO 19906 recommends that, when possible, extreme level combined actions should be determined based on the joint probability distribution of the actions. As an alternative, ISO 19906 provides...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, November 5–7, 2018
Paper Number: OTC-29172-MS
... alternative solutions that maintain safety, while reducing costs significantly. protection structure subsea development houston configuration iceberg protection structure flowline upstream oil & gas interaction probability technipfmc iceberg iceberg keel untrenched flowline requirement...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Arctic Technology Conference, October 24–26, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-27372-MS
... computation. In this paper, the joint probability of failure arising from potential pipeline defects (e.g. corrosion, cracking, and strain) and likely operational deviations (e.g. pressure, temperature, and vibration) is computed real-time using the CM data to predict a condition-based IMR strategy. Having...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Arctic Technology Conference, October 24–26, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-27368-MS
... event ice concentration local ice pressure jordaan a-area relationship reserves evaluation information ice condition ice pressure ice loading event concentration drilling operation management local pressure data design curve event maximum method probability ice thickness...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Arctic Technology Conference, October 24–26, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-27429-MS
... conference ice engineering ltd probability iceberg profile iceberg impact database fpso topsides floating production system iceberg iceberg waterline length information subsea system modeling & simulation waterline length impact frequency Bruce , J. , A. Younan , and A...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Arctic Technology Conference, October 24–26, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-27333-MS
... equipment global pressure ice type probability cumulative probability mpa technology conference global load drilling operation management concentration upstream oil & gas iso 19906 ice load ABS. 2015 . Rules for Building and Classing Mobile Offshore Drilling Units . American...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Arctic Technology Conference, October 24–26, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-27495-MS
... effective design for the platform, while not compromising the safety of the personnel onboard or the integrity of the structure, mooring system or risers. platform equation probability upstream oil & gas iceberg detection proceedings time domain model subsea system concrete spar frequency...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Arctic Technology Conference, October 24–26, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-27474-MS
... seaward extensions in the land fast ice adjacent to the Alaskan coast, as well as a series of onshore movements of the polar pack ice. land fast ice deployment ajurak early december technology conference hazard probability buoy drift track ice cover lease onshore movement beacon...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the Arctic Technology Conference, October 24–26, 2016
Paper Number: OTC-27492-MS
... profile fpso iceberg simulation database probability subsea system contact depth model design force information platform waterline length design load impact frequency 0 Carter , J. , C. Daley , M. Fuglem , I. Jordaan , A. Keinonen , C. Revill , T...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, March 23–25, 2015
Paper Number: OTC-25568-MS
... in the winterization design process, based on approved standards and guidelines. critical winterization aspect winterization risk acceptance criteria risk management probability hazid analysis consequence subsea system shuttle tanker operational safety air temperature safety barrier...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, March 23–25, 2015
Paper Number: OTC-25520-MS
... floe probability penetration step strength sea ice load reserves evaluation iso 19906 implementation multi-year sea ice load ice load breakout force ramp-up probabilistic assessment upstream oil & gas multi-year floe sil technology conference reservoir simulation breakout force...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, February 10–12, 2014
Paper Number: OTC-24546-MS
... recommendation to consider ice events with annual probability less than that specified for the abnormal-level in the context of overall reliability of the structure. This paper uses the term beyond abnormal for these events. Another issue is the influence of operational This paper also offers information and...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, February 10–12, 2014
Paper Number: OTC-23540-MS
... isolated ones. This part is supported by a threat matrix addressing failure mechanisms too. The next step consists of variables and attributes definition, to group them in three categories (Exposure, Mitigation and Resistance) to calculate probabilities of failure (PoF). The mathematics for the model is...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, February 10–12, 2014
Paper Number: OTC-24568-MS
... Abstract In offshore regions where risk of iceberg contact with subsea equipment is unacceptably high, protection options include reduction of the probability of impact by placing the equipment below the seabed in an excavation, and use of protective structures to reduce the probability of...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, February 10–12, 2014
Paper Number: OTC-24628-MS
... ice features (for example the number of icebergs per 10,000 km2), and the probability distributions of the size and mass of the features, their added mass, their velocity, eccentricity of the collision, compliance of the structure, and the strength of the ice. The influence of surrounding sea ice on...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, December 3–5, 2012
Paper Number: OTC-23842-MS
... cold climateregion. gudmestad construction vessel construction work marine operation evacuation alpha factor construction season south western barent sea requirement physical environment barent sea project management upstream oil & gas operation iceberg probability polar low...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, December 3–5, 2012
Paper Number: OTC-23827-MS
... assess theseverity and variability of iceberg concentrations and their behavior. National ice centres have been providing charts of sea ice conditions, whichcan be analyzed to understand probabilities of encountering ice of variousconcentrations and the lengths of the open water season. The outputs...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, December 3–5, 2012
Paper Number: OTC-23844-MS
... consequences. The probability of failure isestimated using the Bayesian analysis. Modeling the structural degradationprocesses using Bayesian analysis is not a new concept; however, modelingdegradation processes using non-conjugate pairs is a new technique that isdiscussed in this paper. Bayesian analysis is...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, February 7–9, 2011
Paper Number: OTC-22061-MS
... accumulations of gas and oil are predicted at a 50% probability in the Kara Sea, Barents Sea, offshore East and West Greenland, Canada, and Alaska. On a BOE basis, undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is concentrated in Russian territory. Oil resources, while...
Proceedings Papers

Paper presented at the OTC Arctic Technology Conference, February 7–9, 2011
Paper Number: OTC-22072-MS
... probability of failure which is associated with global structural failure or with component failure leading to global structural failure. In common with the other ISO codes for offshore structures, namely ISO 19900 [4] and its associated standards, commonly known as the ISO 19900-series, ISO 19906 considers...

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