Iceberg drift forecast is a challenging process. Large uncertainties in iceberg geometry and in the driving forces – current, wind and waves – make accurate forecasts difficult. The two forecast schemes, the ancillary current and the inertial current estimation-forecast scheme are presented. In both schemes, the moving horizon estimator is used, to estimate the needed parameters. Furthermore, a switching scheme is proposed, which switches between the two iceberg drift forecast schemes. A criterion is introduced that identifies when to switch between both schemes. The switching scheme is implemented and tested on an iceberg drift trajectory, measured during a research expedition offshore Newfoundland conducted by ArcticNet and Statoil. It is shown, that the use of two forecast schemes and a timely decision which scheme to use, improves the iceberg drift forecast compared to using only one scheme.

This content is only available via PDF.
You can access this article if you purchase or spend a download.