Abstract

The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the variability of the maximum ice extent over the Baltic Sea (MIB) is investigated in a set of CMIP5 climate models following the RCP4.5 scenario. The study shows that the annual correlations of the winter NAO and the MIB are moderate or fairly strong (0.3-0.6) and a majority of the models also indicate significant correlations on inter-annual to multi-decadal time scales. Our results based on 12 state-of-the-art climate models indicate that the winter NAO has no significant trend or considerable changes in its future variability. However, this remains a subject to debate, as the results of earlier studies are somewhat conflicting. The variability of MIB is projected to become much smaller in the future as a consequence of the warming climate and the related decrease in the MIB.

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