The Arctic is said to contain an unexplored potential corresponding to about 13% and 30% of the remaining unexplored oil and gas resources according to the USGS Arctic study in [2], and USGS indicates that 80% of this will come from offshore. The potential is indisputably there, however the survey does not address the current industry activity or likely investment levels over time required to explore and develop offshore Arctic fields. In this paper we will discuss a method systematically combining facts and modelling results to derive likely discovered volumes year by year, and the current and future exploration activity required to unlock the arctic resources. We will briefly describe a set of steps in this approach:

  • Introduction to how we can systematically collect information about discoveries, acreage positions and intelligence about likely exploration wells.

  • How systematic methods for data collection can be combined with sensible models or analytical guesswork to allow decision makers to see a clear trend improving their near time industry decisions.

  • Based on collected data we will make a review of the players and their exploration acreage positions and look at likely exploration wells and activities in the near future.

  • Via GIS system and sedimentary basin maps the results will be broken down according to sedimentary basins or geographies like countries and provinces.

We have integrated all the above data into a comprehensive database allowing us to analyze various aspects of the results. Several analyses of the data will be shown and results will be discussed. The resulting database is core for the many types of strategy analysis that Rystad Energy can provide, which all are originating from consistently collecting and organizing data. There is much interest in the oil and gas opportunities in the Arctic. However, not too much is actually happening and there are challenges to overcome. Any activities must be driven by companies and their interests. The only way to get a realistic picture of how and when Arctic will develop is to follow closely which plans the companies commit to, and extract from this the likely activities.

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