As our understanding of the failure processes and mechanics associated with individual hpz behavior advances, new models are needed to link hpz behavior with local and global pressures for full-scale interactions. This paper is focused on the development of a probabilistic compressive ice load model for thin first-year sea ice based on statistical descriptions of high pressure zones (hpzs) derived from the analysis of tactile sensor data collected during the Japan Ocean Industries Association (JOIA) medium-scale field indentation test program. The aim of this work is to provide a probabilistic model of hpz behavior that simulates observed local and global pressures and associated scale effects, particularly for interactions involving thin first-year sea ice. Probabilistic descriptions of high pressure zones based on field measurements have been extracted and are incorporated into a model for linking hpzs with methodology for ice pressure estimation. A comparison with local and global pressure design curves generated using methodology provided by ISO 19906 is included.

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