Methodology for Combined Local and Global Ice Pressure Estimation based on a Probabilistic Model of High Pressure Zone Behavior Derived from Field Data

As our understanding of the failure processes and mechanics associated with individual hpz behavior advances, new models are needed to link hpz behavior with local and global pressures for full-scale interactions. This paper is focused on the development of a probabilistic compressive ice load model for thin first-year sea ice based on statistical descriptions of high pressure zones (hpzs) derived from the analysis of tactile sensor data collected during the Japan Ocean Industries Association (JOIA) medium-scale field indentation test program. The aim of this work is to provide a probabilistic model of hpz behavior that simulates observed local and global pressures and associated scale effects, particularly for interactions involving thin first-year sea ice. Probabilistic descriptions of high pressure zones based on field measurements have been extracted and are incorporated into a model for linking hpzs with methodology for ice pressure estimation. A comparison with local and global pressure design curves generated using methodology provided by ISO 19906 is included.