In this paper, we evaluate fault seal potential of a bounding fault of a hypothetical CO2 storage site considering Vshale variation and structural uncertainty in a probabilistic framework. The Shale Gouge Ratio (SGR) evaluation of the reference case indicate good seal potential. The probabilistic approach considering both Vshale and structural uncertainty confirmed such results allowing a better definition of the possible variation of the values compared to the reference case.
Fault sealing evaluation has been extensively studied in hydrocarbon exploration and reservoirs, but as far as CO2 storage is concerned, huge focus must be placed on fault sealing potential for a better understanding of the storage capacity and containment.
Considering more recent needs to better describe the lateral containment for CCS purposes, the benefit of the Fault Seal Analysis (FSA) using a probabilistic approach is a deep understanding of the fault behavior, exploring the whole spectrum of the possible results and opening to further developments of the storage site not assessable with a single deterministic case. Moreover, this approach, applicable not only on CO2 storage complex but also on exploration, development and production of hydrocarbons, provides more robust results, especially in geological context where uncertainties on fault geometry and throw are present.
