The energy transition is a long-term structural change in the global energy system from fossil fuels to net-zero carbon. Hydrogen is set to play a significant role in decarbonizing various industries over the next decades, unlocking new opportunities for companies to create a new hydrogen collaborative economy.
Accenture analysis has focused on the hydrogen demand and supply of EU countries in 2030, in order to constitute a framework to identify the most suitable options of hydrogen production and transportation, involving all the actors in the value chain and fostering cooperation among them to develop new hydrogen-based business in the Mediterranean area. A potential hydrogen demand of about 16 MtH2 by 2030, in line with EU targets, has been assessed to be satisfied by both internal production and imports. The overall European hydrogen supply potential has been articulated into three different scenarios, assuming an incremental green hydrogen production capacity: the Base, the Accelerate and the Full EU Green scenarios. Three different perspectives have been considered, starting from the electrolysis targets set by the national strategies – for the Base EU Green Scenario – and further increasing the renewable energies deployment enabling a higher amount of green hydrogen production – for the Accelerate and the Full EU Green scenarios. The analysis shows how European hydrogen demand cannot be met by domestic supply for the Base and the Accelerate EU Green scenarios, in which the hypothesis of importing it from neighboring Mediterranean, mainly North African, countries has been deepened. According to our study, around 50 GW of electrolysis capacity may be built in those countries, involving roughly 30 €Bn investment and providing circa 4 MtH2, at 0.8-1.1 €/kg below the European benchmark of about 2.0 €/kg for solar technology by 2030. Moreover, the Mediterranean countries may benefit from different transport means and infrastructure: either by blending green hydrogen in the existing gas grid to further develop a full- hydrogen pipeline, or by ship in the form of ammonia or liquid hydrogen.
