Volatility Of Oil And Gas Prices And Strategies Towards A Stable Market

Whilst Security of Supply seems to be the key motif/theme/concern in the 21st century, price volatility underpins that issue, for volatility is a threat to the investment climate that can provide greater security of supply. The last few years have seen significant price movements, first steeply upwards, on the back of, amongst other things, increasing demand from Asia and supply concerns exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. The paper will review how during periods of surplus supply capacity, prices have tended to be range bound and whilst volatility has existed, it has tended to be short term and of limited impact. However, as we move into a more supply constrained world, so we've seen prices rapidly rise as the market has responded to the tightening imbalance between supply and demand. During this paper, I will examine the change in prices and associated volatility and highlight the impact that price volatility has had on both Producers and Importers. The paper will also discuss the drivers of price volatility including Geo-Politics, Market Statistics, Speculations and Environmental. I will then discuss how can we adapt to volatility including relationship between buyer and seller, contract structure, price re openers and whether one sided deals survive in the medium term. The paper will then turn to some of the strategies that can be adopted to create greater stability in the market