ABSTRACT:

The main problem in the reservoir analysis and evaluation is the physical complexity of the field with respect to the amount of information that can be known or acquired. The paucity of data generally increases the degree of the risk connected with the reservoir development and management. In order to avoid uneconomical choices and unsuitable investments, a robust methodology for the uncertainties evaluation and for the risk management is presented. Based on the economic impact on the final risk reduction, this methodology enables us to decide if, what and when new information on the field must be collected. It has been applied to a strategic field in the Adriatic Offshore, through different phases:

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    Identification of the possible criticalities that affect the reservoir evaluation results, with an objective, complete and selective analysis performed using the Inverted Data Flow Technique.

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    Evaluation of the total risk connected with the identified uncertainties through a complete experimental simulation design. The risk estimate is based on the reserves and the Present Value variation.

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    Evaluation of the impact of each critical data on the global uncertainty using a Linear Multiple Regression Technique.

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    Design of different data acquisition survey, aimed at the solution of the main uncertainties.

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    Economical evaluation of the different data acquisition plans, in order to select the most convenient one on the basis of the cost/benefit analysis. The comparison has been made solving a classical decision tree and calculating the variation in the expected present value with respect to the base case.

ENI proprietary software tools, which allow a high automation of the methodology, support the whole analysis.

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