ABSTRACT:

The increased attention to the HS&E requirements unavoidably leads to an improvement of the Risk Analysis predictive tools in order to better estimate the effects of a given incidental event with associated impact on HS&E aspects. To this aim, the Eni - Agip Division has undertaken a specific R&D project relevant to the blow-out effects with the technical and scientific support of EniTecnologie, TEA Sistemi and EniData companies. Eni - Agip departments involved are Safety, Reservoir, Drilling and Completion. The main goal of this project is the development, assessment and validation of an integrated methodology for the evaluation of the impact associated to a blow-out event. The oil and gas discharge flow-rates from the well, the gas and oil droplets concentration distribution and the extension of the contaminated area are the main output of the present methodology. In the frame of the Blow-out project three approaches (a "One Minute" estimation, a "Ten Minute" estimation, a "Best Estimation"?) with different number of inputs required and accuracy in the results have been developed and will be described in this paper. Moreover, a first application of the methodology for the evaluation of the safety and environmental impact associated to a hypothetical blow-out in the Barents Sea during the exploration phase within Norsk Agip Activities, as required by Norwegian Authorities, has been made and results will be presented.

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