In My Opinion…

There is an old French proverb that roughly translates as follows: "The more it changes, the more it is the same." Fifty years ago when SPE was born, the US was still the world's dominant crude-oil producer—the giant oil fields of the Middle East were in the midst of development, and international oil prices were based on Gulf Coast prices less the cost of transport. But even then, industry and government strategists already were considering alternatives such as oil shale (intensely competitively bidding for acreage in Colorado), tight-gas formations (Project Plowshare promised nuclear stimulation), tar sands (an experimental plant at Bitumont, Alberta, ultimately spawned Suncor), and coal (the legacy of Fischer-Tropsch). …"All great truths begin as blasphemies," George Bernard Shaw. … Then, in the 1970s, OPEC was able to increase oil prices significantly through nationalization, and the US became a net oil importer. As a consequence of the rise in prices, the development of productive capacity in the North Sea, west Africa, and the deeper waters of the Gulf of Mexico was economically justified. Oil shale, tar sands, tight gas, and coal were on life support until the "gasoline shortage" of 1979–80, when they enjoyed a brief resuscitation that lasted about 3 years. … "Experience is the name everyone gives their mistakes," Oscar Wilde. … More recently, world energy demand has risen faster than supply, reaching a state of unstable equilibrium (demand of 84 million BOPD and supply of 87 million BOPD) that can be upset by unrest in any significant exporting country as perceived by the NYMEX traders, and prices have followed upward. As a result, tar-sand production has grown rapidly in Canada and Venezuela (despite being energy-intensive and environmentally suspect), and tight-gas production (including that from fractured shales and coal beds) has boomed. However, oil shale has remained dormant, and coal has been a non-starter. …"Man will occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of the time he will pick himself up and continue on," Winston Churchill. … Now, because the US is importing more than 50% of the oil it consumes and imports of refined products also are increasing, the incumbent masters in Washington, DC—while admitting addiction to oil—have belatedly recognized the uncertainty associated with US energy supply [e.g., Putin (Gazprom vs. the European Union and total control of production and transport, Chavez (second round of nationalization in Venezuela, including the Orinoco Tar Belt, and unfettered political power at home and in other parts of South America), and Morales (third round of nationalization in Bolivia without the resources, human and financial, needed to operate)].