Rock slope is a complex system with interaction of multiple factors, as the deformation process can be regarded as the evolution of a nonlinear dynamic system. Combining with the measured data, a nonlinear dynamics model for prediction of slope deformation is constructed, and the monitoring deformation data is analyzed to predict the trend of deformation. It is verified that the computed results are in good agreement with the observed data.


Slope problems can be met in Mining, water conservancy, transportation, and so on. For example, landslide hazard, one of the three natural disasters (earthquake, flood, landslide hazard), is seriously threatening the safety of state property and people's life. Study of slope stability can provide scientific basis for the engineering construction and important instruction for the reinforcement of slope and landslide prediction.

Due to the extremely complexity of rock slope, it is widely used to monitor the deformation of some key points of rock slope in order to evaluate its stability, at the same time the future deformation can be forecasted according to the measured deformation through certain method (Liu et al. 2001, Li et al. 2003). Today, by using high precision instruments, slope deformation can be precisely measured easily, but precisely predict the future deformation of rock slope is not easy to do. The reason is, because of the complexity of the rock mass structure, the engineering geological conditions and characteristic parameters of rock mass which involved are usually not completely quantitative, sometimes it even is random and fuzzy, and in many cases it cannot be described by mathematical model. There are very complex nonlinear relations among the factors which affecting the rock characteristic of the slope system, while the conventional method is not easy to accurately describe the relationship.

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