ABSTRACT:

The slope unit method provides an effective tool for the analysis of landslide stability in the mountain region. The combination of the classical mechanics theory and probability statistics offers the popularity of the qualitative and quantitative evaluation of slope stability. In this paper, by dividing the slope unit on the target region, the three-dimensional safety factor by limit equilibrium model was obtained by using the non deterministic probability density function of reliability evaluation. According to this method we can determine the risk grading of the slope unit instability probability.

1 INTRODUCTION

Landslide disasters usually cause serious casualties and property losses, and they are also social problems received wide concerning. The correct analysis methods of the failure probability of landslide disaster area are significant for the landslide dis· aster prevention. So far the recognition methods for a wide area of geological disasters are divided into two categories: Deterministic and non deterministic evaluation method. The deterministic evaluation methods are based on the landslide area terrain, geology, rock and soil mechanics properties etc. Also, the mechanical evaluation model can be used to analyze the slope stability, especially the limit equilibrium method, numerical simulation and the block theory etc. The non deterministic evaluation methods are the use of mathematical statistical methods (failure probability method, reliability analysis method) and the coupling mechanics models. They are based on the study of mathematical statistical method. Using GIS and the remote sensing, the regional geologies, the tilt angle, the valley density, fault, vegetation, terrain classification and dimensions are collected to generate spatial distribution map. The weight of each factor is given to produce the superposition factor and make the comprehensive evaluation index distribution map, the formation of unstable landslide region as well.

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