Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single safety factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyzes are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Between the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used in geotechnical society: FOSM (first order and second moment), estimate points (Rosenblueth) and Monte Carlo. In this paper is presented a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyzes (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. Notes that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the structures in degrees of priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model and incorporating uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management.
Comparison Between Deterministic and Probabilistic Stability Analysis, Featuring a Consequent Risk Assessment
Queiroz, Isabela Moreira. "Comparison Between Deterministic and Probabilistic Stability Analysis, Featuring a Consequent Risk Assessment." Paper presented at the ISRM VII Brazilian Symposium on Rock Mechanics - SBMR 2016, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil, October 2016.
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