Can we predict failure-time of geo-hazards? Prediction of geo-hazards, for instance, rock mass failure, landslides, etc., is still a challenge to date in the rock mechanics field. Geo-hazards still pose a major threat to life and major loss in terms of economics. The focal point of our research is to predict failure-time of geohazards. Firstly, the authors evaluated the validity of the Inverse-velocity (INV) method to predict failure-time of rock mass and landslides. Secondly, two methods for computing predictions were also evaluated:
based on non-linear approximation (NLA), and
on the slope (gradient) to compute Tf, termed the SLO method, which will be described in detail in the paper.
The concept of "safe" and "unsafe" predictions was developed to classify predictions. With this in mind, prediction of failure case histories and rock specimens in the laboratory is presented. It was realized that SLO is better than the INV method.
Geo-hazards still pose a major threat to life and major loss in terms of economics. The issue of predictability of landslides and rock slope failures, which are major geo-hazards, is of great concern. In the geotechnical field, structures are monitored to ascertain their stability, but the question, "When is geomechanical failure going to occur?" is still an issue. Various monitoring equipment and devices such as Global Positioning System (GPS), Slope stability radar (SSR), extensometers, survey stations, etc. are used but somehow "failure" still occurs unanticipated. Monitoring the behaviour of landslides and rock slopes is an important aspect to mitigate failure or accidents. Previous research has been conducted in the prediction of landslides, rock mass and rock slope failures. Saito (1969) forecasted the time of slope failure using graphical method. Fukuzono (1985) used inverse-velocity to predict failure time for sand slopes based on laboratory test.
