Pile foundations are often subjected to horizontal loads. There are several deterministic techniques to analyze single piles under lateral loading. This paper implements a computationally inexpensive technique called Winkler approach to model the soil-pile system as vertical beam supported by a series of discrete springs. Beam and spring elements in structural analysis software, ABAQUS, are used in this study to predict response of a single pile under a horizontal load. It is known that soil properties, pile properties, and load systems dominate the performance of a pile and each has a different extent of uncertainty. It was found that the soil properties, lateral subgrade modulus of soil and ultimate soil resistance, in addition to the elastic modulus of pile material, and horizontal load were the most important parameters influencing the performance of piles. Random variation in these factors is studied using Monte Carlo simulation. It is shown that the likelihood of exceeding a specific level of maximum bending moment and pile head displacement for a given horizontal load can be used to construct failure probability curves to study the performance of piles due to the uncertainty in the aforementioned factors in the soilpile system.
To support those structures, piles that are designed to carry horizontal loads are needed. Two aspects of interest which should be considered in designing a laterally loaded pile are the lateral pile head displacement and the maximum bending moment in the pile (Tandjiria et al, 2000). A pile is said to provide good performance if these two aspects are satisfied. The probability of failure of the pile can be defined as the likelihood of exceeding a specific level of pile head displacement and bending moment in the pile for a certain level of horizontal load applied at the pile head.