This paper reflects the authors" continuing studies to combine a regional numerical ice regime model and a local statistical model based on the results of field observations near Sakhafin Island. The proposed approach is aimed at meeting requirements of hydraulicengineering construction, primarily, calculation of ice loads on offshore structures. Combining the mathematical model of ice regime and the results of specialized long-term ice observations at Sakhalin shelf allows us to determine reliable parameters of ice cover state. High resolution satellite images is an important supplement to further refine the calculations. The developed approach has been applied to calculations of material gradual refusal under influence of repeating cyclic ice loading for ice conditions in the vicinity of northeastern coast of Sakhalin Island.
The shelf of many marginal seas in the Arctic Ocean and other icecovered seas in lower latitudes are promising locations for hydrocarbon production. Ice cover in the winter season causes the serious problems for offshore exploration. This explains the necessity to research different aspects of offshore oil and natural gas production, marine navigation, safety problems, and environment protection in ice-infested waters. One of the main tasks of ice studies is the calculation of ice loads on various engineering structures. The usual approach to ice force analysis was based upon results of detailed observations of ice cover parameters and ice physical properties. But the results of field experiments cannot reflect all ranges of possible changes in ice parameters as ice cover state undergoes noticeable interannual variability. As an alternative approach to take into account possible changes in parameters of ice cover state, we proposed (Bekker, Appel, 1997) to combine the description of local ice regime at the area under consideration (Bekker et al., 1989) with the results of numerical method modeling of ice cover evolution (Appel. 1997).
