In this study, a trial calculation of design ice loads on a candidate arctic structure for offshore Sakhalin is conducted. Estimation of the design ice loads is performed using a probability based method proposed by the author. This method calculates a probability density of ice loads by the Monte Carlo simulation and produces a return period - ice loads relation from the simulated probability density. The method proposed is briefly explained. Two important elements of the method. the ice load models for possible ice - structure interactions which are specified in interaction scenarios associated with offshore Sakhalin are determined and probability density functions for variables associated with ice and sea condition at offshore Sakhalin are also determined. Some trial calculations are done. And some necessities to apply the method are discussed.
Japan Oil Industries Association (hereafter, JOIA) has been organizing a research program. The first phase of the program mainly concentrates to establish methods for calculating ice load on arctic structures which have rather simple geometric shapes such as conical and vertical structures. The first phase seems to be successful, then JOIA has decided to proceed his research activity toward more practical aspects. One of new tasks to be dealt with the JOIA research program is an application of obtained knowledge to design a structure in offshore Sakhalin. Ishikawajima -Harima Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. (hereafter, IHI) is assigned to develop a method to set a design ice load. un has developed a method for setting a design ice load to be applicable to a structure in Beaufort Sea. This method is named IDIFES and reported in ISOPE"92 conference(Kato, 1992a). These modifications are mostly made on probability density functions (hereafter P.D.F.) for variable defining the ice and sea conditions at the region in question.
