ABSTRACT

The estimation of risks associated with arctic pipelines can differ from traditional pipeline risk analyses. Arctic pipelines deserve special treatment due to the harsh conditions which may affect leak detection, leak isolation, repairs, testing, and maintenance. This paper presents an overview of pipeline risk assessment and further details the application to arctic pipelines. INTRODUCTION Quantitative risk assessments for fixed installations involve a "pointsource" for the release of hazardous materials. Failure frequencies can be derived from historical data records, and many different types of components are involved. Pipeline risk assessments are much different. Consequences stem from a line-source, not a single geographical point. Failure probabilities are needed for only one type of component: pipelines with associated equipment. Also, pipelines can traverse unique environments with changing operating conditions. Therefore, application of historical data from pooled conventional pipeline data can be misleading and could lead to erroneous estimates of leak probabilities. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of pipeline risk assessments and to supply helpful information on applying the techniques to arctic pipelines. Most arctic pipelines carry crude oil and natural gas. This paper examines a crude oil pipeline where the consequences are measured in terms of volume of product spilled. Also, this paper looks at the risk of cross-country pipelines. Undersea pipelines, although very much a part of offshore oil and gas production, are excluded from the details of this paper.

BACKGROUND

A quantitative risk analysis for pipeline systems is carried out using the guidelines of the American Institute or Chemical Engineers (AIChE). In this study: Risk is the chance of the loss of containment leading to an oil spill. It is measured in terms of both the likelihood and magnitude of the loss. To evaluate risks, a combination of hazard, event, consequence and likelihood is utilized.

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