ABSTRACT

In recent years, air crashes have occurred frequently. The search for aircraft wreckage is the top priority after a crash. However, natural factors such as winds, currents and waves at sea promoting the wreckage to drift make the search task daunting. A good drift prediction model can accurately calculate the drift trajectory of a wrecked target in the marine environment and improve the success rate of maritime search operations. The purpose of this paper is to explore the accuracy of three drift prediction models for calculating the drift trajectories of wreckage at sea, and to make a comprehensive evaluation. First, the characteristics and principles of three drift prediction models are introduced, including the AP98 leeway model, the dynamics drift model and the improved drift prediction model. Then, the drift parameters of the three drift prediction models are fitted using least squares regression based on the measured data obtained from the wreckage drift experiments conducted in the South China Sea. Finally, the drift trajectories of the wreckage at sea are calculated using the three drift prediction models respectively in combination with Monte Carlo technique, and the simulated trajectories are compared with the actual drift trajectories to find the best drift model applicable to the drift trajectory prediction of the wreckage at sea. The research in this paper has important guiding significance for the search and rescue (SAR) of the wreckage at sea.

INTRODUCTION

When an aircraft crashes at sea, the fuselage will fall into pieces, some of which will sink to the bottom of the sea, while others will float on the surface because they are less dense than seawater. Finding these floating debris for the crash area to determine as well as the search for the black box is of great help. Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared on 8 March 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, China. A piece of marine debris, later confirmed to be a flaperon from flight MH370 by the French prosecutor, was found on Réunion Island in the western Indian Ocean on 29 July, 2015. After the incident, scholars from various countries actively carried out the simulation of the drift trajectory of the wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, such as Gao et al. (2016) established a drift trajectory prediction model for the target in the Southern Indian Ocean based on Leeway drift theory and Monte Carlo method, and used three sets of leeway coefficients to predict the drift trajectory of the target for 500 days. The prediction results are generally consistent with the results of surface drift buoy trajectory analysis, indicating that the performance of the drift trajectory prediction model is reliable. Jansen et al. (2016) proposed a numerical simulation using high-resolution oceanographic and meteorological data to predict the movement of floating debris in the accident. Different models were chosen for different starting positions and wind drag parameters, and these models were combined into a superensemble to predict the distribution of debris at different moments in time. Durgadoo et al. (2021) used ocean currents simulated by a state-of-the-art ocean circulation model combined with the surface Stokes drift to determine the possible paths of debris. The results demonstrate the importance of Stokes drift and the object buoyancy properties for the simulation of drift trajectories.

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