Shoreline evolution in short, medium and long–term for Zohr plant area (Egypt) was investigated using the numerical model GENESIS. Different scenarios were modeled considering existing structures and planned shore protections. Results of the study highlighted a natural erosion process due to sand transport from northwest to southeast and consequently the need of shore protections to avoid beach retreat. GENESIS simulations provided rather representative results of shoreline evolution when compared to real evolution of the shoreline. Larger discrepancies were found close to the structures protruding in the sea: simulations provided more severe shoreline retreat (e.g. larger erosion) downdrift the man-made structures.
The East Nile Delta coast is exposed to longshore sediment transport phenomena mainly going from north west to south east. Zohr onshore plant, located at about 15 km east of Port Said, is part of the development of the world class supergiant gas discovery in the deep waters of Egypt’s Mediterranean Sea. A large-scale view of the study area is shown in Fig. 1. Indication of fetches is also reported.
The study area is undergoing shoreline erosion and medium-term retreat; therefore, a shoreline evolution study was performed considering the 2016 beach width as the base condition.
Main aims of this study are: (i) the investigation of the coastal evolution trend in order to verify if critical conditions will occur in front of the plant, (ii) understanding mitigation effects that future shore protection will have on the beach and (iii) testing GENESIS modeling performances compared to the real evolution of the beach.
The initial sections of this paper report a description of the data used from 2016 to 2020, the analyses performed before starting the coastline evolution study with the numerical model GENESIS, a brief description of the background, the general methodology and an overview of GENESIS model equations. The most significant coastline evolution scenarios are then presented and discussed, considering both no human intervention configuration (“Do-Nothing”) and different shore protection layouts. The last part of the paper consists of a description of the implementation of data in a dedicated GIS model and finally conclusions.