ABSTRACT

In order to explore the rule of maritime traffic accidents and propose effective preventive measures in Yangtze River Basin. The data of 1513 maritime traffic accidents from the year 2008 to 2014 is used to compile statistics and analyze the characteristics of quantity, species, time, region and accident causation. The model of AHP is built to obtain the weight of each factor, then the BP neural network model was estabished to forecast the number of the next three years traffic accidents. The results show that collision is the main components of marine accidents, and the total number of accidents decreases, that January, March, April, May, June, October, November, December, and at 6am and in the area of riverbank, bridge and river Interchange are more likely to make the accidents happen, that the human factor is the dominant factor affecting marine accidents and the weights of Improper Lookout, Officers Ineligibility, Unfamiliar Navigation Condition, Improper Route Planning, Improper Operation and Improper Colligation are larger than others in human factors.Suggestions are made to prevent accidents from three aspect: managers, shipping companies and crew, according to the basic characteristics of maritime accidents, as well as future projection.

INTRODUCTION

According to China Statistical Yearbook statistics, our near 5 the annual turnover of waterborne goods accounts for approximately the total turnover of goods 50%. The waterway transportation still has irreplaceable status in the carriage of goods. Among them, inland waterway transportation plays a vital role in the development of domestic economy. With the development of economy, water transportation is becoming more and more busy, and the number of ships is increasing every year, which leads to the increase of traffic density and the frequent occurrence of water traffic accidents. TheYangtze River is the main transportation route of inland waterway freight in China, which is known as the Golden Waterway. At the same time, because of the complexity of the Yangtze River basin, it belongs to the frequent area of water traffic accidents. Therefore, it is very important to study the characteristics and laws of water traffic accidents. Statistical analysis refers to the use of statistical methods and analytical objects of knowledge, from the combination of quantitative and qualitative research activities. At present, the domestic scholar Li B, Wang K, Wei JP (2013) and Deng QG, Liu MJ, Zhao FJ (2010) proposed the gas explosion accident; Zhang Y, Wang DY, Yang K (2006) proposed water pollution accident; Zhao LJ, Wu P, Xu K (2009) proposed dangerous chemical transportation accident; Yang H, Wang PZ, Wan XY (2008) proposed dust explosion accident; Peng B(2013), Li WH, Ma XX, Chen HQ, et al (2013) and Huang SH(2010) proposed traffic accident; and so on statistical analysis, study the Law of accidents, and put forward suggestions to prevent accidents. But there are few studies on the regularity of water traffic accidents. In the process of statistical analysis and research on water traffic accidents, it is generally analyzed from several aspects, such as number of accidents, time, type and location. In the time of accident, the main research focus is on the impact of ship handover period on water traffic accidents, ignoring the influence of time varying fatigue on accidents. In the location of the accident, the domestic scholars mainly in the large scope of the accident law analysis, such as a channel, Anchorage, Water, and so on, there is no analysis of the cause of the accident in the waters.

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