Abstract

In this paper a practical application of a probabilistic fracture mechanics approach in an existing and damaged offshore structure is presented. Taking basis in the global wave load modelling and FEA models of the structure the stresses and fatigue cycles at existing cracks are modelled in a probabilistic manner. The failure probability of the cracks in the present and future states are calculated and probabilistic predictions of the crack growth are made. Finally, an outlook on possible usage of the results is given and advantages of a probabilistic analysis are discussed.

Keywords:
practical application, fracture mechanics, reliability analysis, crack growth, prediction, crack tip, loading, failure probability, mean value, information
Subjects:
Hydraulic Fracturing
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2015. International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
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