In recent years, the interest in the applicability of Bayesian Networks (BN) to the Reliability and Risk Analysis of complex systems has increased. BNs are powerful probabilistic models to build the causal relationships between events and applicable failure modes of a system. One important feature of BN is the possibility of including evidences about the system state on the system model to reassess the probabilities of network events. Given some evidence, beliefs are recalculated to indicate its impact on the network. This feature may be used to provide several analyses of different scenarios to obtain information such as the critical components, the influence of environmental conditions on the system, the impact of including redundancies, the impact of common cause failures and any other condition that affects the system reliability. This paper presents an application of BN to analyze different event scenarios by computing the posterior marginal probability distribution of each component, the computation of the posterior joint probability distribution on subsets of components, and the computation of the posterior joint probability distribution function of the set of all nodes. As an application, this study will perform the analysis of the behavior of a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Regasification System on a Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU). Currently, Liquefied Natural Gas Import Terminals (where the storage and regasification process is conducted) are mostly onshore; the construction of these terminals is costly, and many adaptations are necessary to abide by environmental and safety laws. The FSRU can be viewed as an option for LNG storage and regasification. The results clarify how the use of BNs to analyze different scenarios may provide relevant data about the system behavior and improve reliability and risk analysis.
Skip Nav Destination
The Twenty-second International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference
June 17–22, 2012
Rhodes, Greece
The Use of Bayesian Networks In Reliability Analysis of the LNG Regasification System On a FSRU Under Different Scenarios
Adriana Miralles Schleder;
Adriana Miralles Schleder
Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Department, University of São Paulo
Search for other works by this author on:
Marcelo Ramos Martins;
Marcelo Ramos Martins
Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering Department, University of São Paulo
Search for other works by this author on:
Mohammad Modarres
Mohammad Modarres
Mechanical Engineering Department, University of Maryland
Search for other works by this author on:
Paper presented at the The Twenty-second International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Rhodes, Greece, June 2012.
Paper Number:
ISOPE-I-12-186
Published:
June 17 2012
Citation
Schleder, Adriana Miralles, Martins, Marcelo Ramos, and Mohammad Modarres. "The Use of Bayesian Networks In Reliability Analysis of the LNG Regasification System On a FSRU Under Different Scenarios." Paper presented at the The Twenty-second International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Rhodes, Greece, June 2012.
Download citation file:
Sign in
Don't already have an account? Register
Personal Account
You could not be signed in. Please check your username and password and try again.
Could not validate captcha. Please try again.
Pay-Per-View Access
$20.00
Advertisement
7
Views
Advertisement
Suggested Reading
Advertisement