In a few decades, it is predicted that the extent of summer Arctic sea ice will retreat significantly and first-year sea ice will only be present in the winters. However, major obstacles still remain, such as unpredictable regional anomalies in ice conditions, drifting icebergs, severe icing, darkness in winter, remoteness and vulnerable environments. To insure safety and efficiency in proposed Arctic transportation, internationally accepted rules and regulations are necessary and some aspects of these are discussed in this paper. In regards to specified vessels being icestrengthened and manned by well-trained crews, Arctic operations by consortia or alliances, organized under an agreement among world shipping industry leaders and regulators would be desirable. Such organized Arctic operations would maintain a high degree of safety and would become cost effective, and mega-hub ports on the rim of the Arctic Seas could become staging areas for trans-shipment of the Arctic Ocean.
The rapid retreat of sea ice in the Arctic Seas has frequently been reported and discussed in a number of academic papers. The matter admits some arguments. Some scientists criticized the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 report and emphasized that the current rapid retreat could still be due to periodical fluctuations of the natural climate and the sea ice would increase its coverage again to some extent in a few decades, although in the longer term the trend of retreat and thinning of sea ice would continue. Such arguments perplexed the shipping industry, which prefers stability in predictions for Arctic shipping planning. The world seaborne trade has closely followed trends in the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It was thus affected by the global recession in 2009, while the trade volume of coal and iron ore remained at a high level due to the strong import demand of China.
