A three-dimensional high-resolution hydrodynamic model (ECOMsed) was used to analyze the effects of sea level variations on the storm surge and the check water levels along the coast of East China Sea (ECS). Based on IPCC AR4 A1B scenario, the sea level inter-annual variation with 4–8 years period performed noticeably in middle of the 21st century, and sea level reached the highest level in the 2060 year. The "nominal storm surge" combined with the relevant monthly sea level in the 2060 year in 21st century was simulated in the East China Sea (ECS) by 1989–2008 typhoon cases. The model results exhibited that sea level variations play a significant role on storm surge evolution. Residual elevation difference performed 10 cm in the three tide gauges, and equated to the one fifth of the ECS sea level variability The elevation range and the maximal residual elevation increased along the northern coastline of the Jiangsu province and Liaodong Peninsula. The check water level in the ECS coast could reach to 4.5m in 21st century.
The climate change and the rising sea level are concerned by the international governments and scientists nowadays. As human activities influence on marine and atmospheric processes, the sea level variations become the major issues. There will be more than millions of people suffered from the sea level rise in the eighty decade of 21st century, reported in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007). Storm surge disaster resulted in huge casualties and enormous economic loss along China coastal area in the last decades. With the development of social industry and agriculture and so as the increase in infrastructure, the disaster loss would be heavier in storm surge. Then, it is an important issue in understanding storm surge change with consideration of sea level variations.
