ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the historic typhoon waves and surges data, from 1998 to 2007, observed in the typhoon periods at Hua-Lien Waters by the methods of Normal, Rayleigh, Weibull, Gamma, Generalized Extreme Value distributions and goodness of fit test. The results indicate the typhoon-waves data are described by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution; while the Weibull distributions depict typhoon surges. The correlation coefficients reach high and medium values for typhoon waves and surges data along the typhoon tracks of 1,2,3,4 and 6, respectively. These typhoon tracks are mostly passing through and making landfalls around Hua-Lien Waters. With these statistical properties, the precautions against natural calamities in advance as well as coastal managements for this area can be deployed. I.

INTRODUCTION

Taiwan lies at the intersection zone between the tropics and the subtropics and is the frequent routes for the typhoon passage in the western Pacific Ocean. According to the centenary statistics, there are 3.5 typhoons invading the Taiwan area, annually. With effects of the global warming and the oceanic climatology transformation, typhoon occurrences around the Taiwan water areas have been increasing to an average of 6~7 times for the late decade. Surges and huge waves accompanying typhoons will probably incur the abrupt increase in sea level heights, the erosions of the coasts and the inundations along the coastal areas, all these phenomena will cause huge damages and impacts on the coastal environment around Taiwan. Generally speaking, it is widely accepted that the wave statistical characteristics is the random distribution of the Gaussian process, and the statistical characteristics of the wave heights conform to Rayleigh distribution (Kuo, 2001; Reeve et al., 2004). Such assumptions are acceptable when under the deep sea conditions or the artificial waves made in the laboratory

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