Assuming Nankai Earthquake that will occur in the near future, at Nankai Trough, the earthquake at Kochi City and Susaki city in Kochi prefecture is simulated. The liquefaction damage is examined by the MDM method, which is thought that it is comparatively accurate in total stress analysis based on above mentioned earthquake wave. In addition, assuming the tsunami after the earthquake, the numerical analysis of the refuge action is performed and discussed. In this analysis, the refuge area is assumed that in the out of flood area (height), and the existing refuge point in the flood region. As a result,
Serious liquefaction damage is predicted in a part of region.
It is clarified that the liquefaction measures for securing the refuge route toward the height, and for the collapse of the emergency evacuation point must be constructed.
The Nankai trough is assumed to one of hypocenters where the oceanic type earthquake is caused in Shikoku. The Nankai trough caused the earthquake of the magnitude more than M 8.0 at the interval of 90 to 150 year. It is said that the earthquake of about M8.4 will occur at the probability of 40% within 30 years and 80% in 50 years (Yagi et al. 1999). In this research, the probability of the occurrence of liquefaction that will be caused by Nankai earthquake is investigated through the earthquake response analysis (MDM method) for the Kochi City and the Susaki city using simulated earthquake wave and shearing stress ratio. It is necessary that the residents in the tsunami flood area and the boundary area should evacuate to the safe place as soon as possible when a huge earthquake occurs.
