Challenges in Uncertainty Management: Scenarios vs. Realizations and Their Impacts on Projects - How to Deal With That?

In an uncertainty evaluation process, making sure that critical uncertainties are captured is crucial. This paper aims at showing the difficulties in defining critical uncertainties because 1) definitions are not necessarily clear and 2) capturing the whole range of uncertainties is impossible. Indeed, if we place ourselves in the appraisal and development screening phase of an E&P project , the main objective is to reduce uncertainties and hence risk to an acceptable level which then allows triggering investments in such a project.