Abstract

India is the second most populous country in the world and tends to surpass China as the most populous country. The booming economy with a high-percentage annual growth in GDP in the past twenty years has boosted its energy demand. Scarce in natural resources, India has long been an oil-importing country. Now, about 65% of its oil consumption has to be imported, and the gap is still increasing. Surpassing Japan as the world's second-largest petroleum consumer in 2003, China was the main driving force for the record-high oil prices in 2005; however, the effect of Indian tremendous oil demand on the prices should not be ignored. In this paper, we derive correlations based on solid oil and gas data reported in the past 20 years and then make predictions up to 2025 by using the correlations. In addition, we compare our predictions with those made by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Oil demand predicted by us is very high and comparable with that by EIA under the assumption of high economic growth scenario. The gas demand predicted by us is close to the low growth case predicted by EIA. Gas consumption in India will increase by 160% from 2000 to 2025 while oil consumption by 180% during the same period. In 2025, 87% of the oil consumed in India will have to be imported. A lot of oil and gas will have to be imported to meet boosting demand, creating tremendous opportunities in marketing oil and gas to India.

Introduction

India is the second most populous country in the world. According to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the India's population was estimated to be 1.08 billion while China's 1.31 billion in July 2005. The population growth rate of India, 1.4%, is about 2.41 times that of China, 0.58%.

India is developing very fast. From 1994 to 2004, its economy annually grew by about 6.8%. Along with China, India is considered as an emerging economic power. India is very successful in capitalizing on the software development. It exports a lot of software services and workers to other countries, especially the United States. In Silicon Valley, the world's software cradle, Indian software engineers are everywhere.

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