Disaster losses estimates are helpful for arranging disaster relief and postdisaster reconstruction. However, most of the previous analysis of sea ice disasters focus on direct losses, whereas very few studies evaluate the indirect economic losses. To fill this research gap, this study provides an assessment of the indirect economic losses caused by the sea ice disaster in Liaoning Province in China using an adaptive regional input-output (ARIO) model. The results show that indirect economic losses were 885 million yuan, which account for 25.3% of the direct economic losses. In particular, the impacts were found to be severe in the following sectors: agriculture, food manufacturing, chemical industry, catering industry, machinery and equipment manufacturing, and transportation and post industry.

INTRODUCTION

Sea ice disasters, such as marine icing, ice pileup against the structures, ice ridging, and ice pressure buildup, are one of the most serious types of disasters in northern China. Sea ice can cause various types of damage to marine infrastructures, such as destroying various offshore facilities, squeezing ships, blocking ports and waterways, and destroying aquaculture facilities (GB/T 28921-2012; National Standardization Administration, 2012). The Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea of China, located on the edge of the Northwest Pacific Ocean, are considered the lowest seasonal frozen sea areas in the world. Sea ice disasters mainly occur within 10 km of the coastline in northern China and often last three to four months (Gu et al., 2014). The coastal icing area in this region accounts for about 6.0% of the total land area in China and involves nearly 20% of China's total population and 30% of China's gross domestic product (GDP). This area is an important economic zone in northern China and is the center of the Northeast Asian economic circle. Because of the rapid development of marine economy, a large number of population and industries have gathered in the coastal regions. Oil-related industries, such as oil exploitation, aquaculture, port shipment, petrochemical refining and metallurgy, and steel metallurgy, are densely distributed in the ice-covered sea regions and corresponding coastal regions (Gu et al., 2014). According to statistics of sea ice disasters, a severe sea ice disaster roughly occurs every five to six years, and sea ice disasters even occur every year in some areas. Many serious sea ice disasters have caused major impacts on the economy (Yang, 1994; Liu et al., 2016). For example, in the winter of 2009–2010, the direct economic losses caused by sea ice disaster in China were 6.318 billion yuan (Sun et al., 2011). The loss statistics associated with sea ice disasters improved after the large-scale sea ice event that occurred that year.

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