We developed a production-outlook model based on an interdisciplinary analysis of production data from 3,689 wells that were drilled through 2011 and geologic data on the Fayetteville shale play. The model is the most-granular public study to date because it is modeled after six tiers of varying productivity and well economics of average wells by tier. The analysis covers 2,234 sq miles across partly drained and undrilled acreage. We estimate potential drilling locations by tier for the total area, and use physics-based production profiles assuming transient-linear flow. Drilling pace is adjusted to changes in natural-gas price relative to well economics, historical attrition rates, and logistical constraints. We run simulations and conduct scenario analysis on reasonable ranges for natural-gas price, remaining developable acreage, improvements in technology and well-cost performance, and economic limit for shutting in a well. Our analysis indicates remaining recovery from existing wells and those to be drilled between 2012 and 2030 of approximately 14.5 Tcf in the base case, subject to many uncertainties.

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