Evaluation of the Seismic Response of the Rock Mass Using a Model of Seismic Aftershocks of the Epidemic Type

High-stress environments have become more common in recent years as mines are getting deeper every time. These environments imply an increase in the seismic hazard generated by the sudden release of energy from mining activities. Seismic events which cause visible damage to excavations, pose a threat to human population or interrupt mining activities are called rockbursts that are related to rock mechanics and geophysics. To monitor the state of the rock mass, knowing its response to the mining applied in presence of different hydrothermal bodies and the occurrence of large seismic events, the use of a spatial-temporal point process model called ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences) is proposed. The model simulates a process in which each event produces its own offspring events. To use this seismic indicator, it is necessary to determine parameters for a calibration period and establish an alert criterion s called residual analysis, based on the difference between the measured and model-estimated seismicity. In order to implement the ETAS model in the future, calibration, evaluation, and application of parameters are discussed, based on the analysis of recorded seismicity during the construction of a tunnel in a mine located in Chile.