High-pressure fluid injection for well stimulation can induce a combination of new tensile fractures and shear activation of existing natural fractures. It is beneficial to consider uncertainty in fracture geometry when designing multi-well layouts where fracture connectivity between more than one well is required, such as for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). In this study, we apply Monte-Carlo analysis to evaluate the probability of successfully connecting at least two wells via a fracture for a set of proposed multi-well layouts for the EGS Collab project's Experiment 2 site at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. This evaluation is purposely conducted early in the development stage without direct knowledge of the local stress state or the locations of natural fractures. This analysis is useful to identify multi-well designs that are most likely to meet project goals and to understand what benefits additional measurements could provide for improving decision making.

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